Make Donald Drumpf Again II: The Tremendous Sequel

Republicans have perhaps driven moderates out of their party. Maybe.....but they've recruited a whole hell of a lot more people that are downright angry, disillusioned, fearful, etc....None of these current Republican voters care two bits about a 10 step plan to improve the economy. They're too triggered to care. Get rid of minorities. One step. That's their plan to improve things. Simplistic because that's all they can handle. 

I'm not blaming them btw. The concept of "America the land of opportunity" fractured a while back and that's thanks to both parties and corporations. But this group of supporters doesn't understand that connection. They've been left out in many ways and they've also never put their foot forward to participate either. 

Again, I go back to Dems not understanding what's happening and/or not knowing how to tackle this. It isn't new either. They've had enough time to come up with a way to win back the working blue collared man that used to be base of the party. 

I watched the debate almost in its entirety as it aired. Turned it off in the last 10 minutes when Trump started wanting to fight about his golf scores. Biden's first 15 minutes were bad. Terrible. Awful. Pull him off the stage bad.

But he largely recovered, and he has been on point everywhere he has appeared since. The ABC interview airs tonight, and he has rallies this weekend. If they go fine, as I expect them to go fine, everyone needs to relax.

The AFL-CIO as well as the Culinary Workers Union RE-endorsed him yesterday, and several African-American voter groups stated that they have no interest in replacing him.

Replacing him has become the greatest collective work of fancfic in the history of the genre.


Josh Marshall of TPM on Biden backing out:

There’s a different, though related, point that hasn’t been sufficiently aired: legitimacy. Joe Biden ran for President in 2020 and, in selecting him, the American people decided that if anything happened to Joe Biden, Kamala Harris would become President. Joe Biden was just renominated with millions of votes. We’re now talking about simply tossing all that out the window. Of course, if Biden steps down a big part of it will go out the window. What has angered me about a lot of the columnists demanding Biden step aside is their almost unanimously deciding that Kamala Harris simply doesn’t exist. There will be some “process,” a choice will be made and all Democrats will unite and say Kumbaya. If you think you can toss the incumbent President and just go full write-your-own-adventure process, I really doubt you fully appreciate the gravity of the step one of the process you’re calling for.

talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/where-we-are-on-july-4th-and-one-week-after

***

I think this is a HUGE part of what's driving a big part of the "Send Joe home" narrative.

The drama. The nail-biting suspense of WHO WILL THE LAST-MINUTE SAVIOR OF AMERICA BEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!! The brokered convention where the nominee is decided in hushed tones by the party powers with the weight of the free world on their shoulders?? You feel it in every word. Fists are mashed against the table. "What about the PEOPLE, dammit?" "What about..........the FUTURE?"

Will it be the raucous floor fight with screaming and gnashing of teeth and throwing chairs before they all realize, complete with background music that tells you an "AWWWW" moment is coming up, where they come up with the one name, and then join hands in triumph because they know "they GOT this?"

But....maybe....during that screaming floor fight, MICHELLE OBAMA just appears in the convention center like Thor dropping in on lightning to save the day. She takes each hand in turn, smiles like a saint, as she gracefully walks up to the podium and, off the cuff, gives a speech that would make Aaron Sorkin sob and lament, "God, I wish I could write shit like that."

It's intoxicating. It can be anything you want it to be. It's pure, mainlined fanfic. One person starts off with an idea and it spreads like a virus.

"What if....?"

"Yeah, but THEN what if...?"

"What about INSTEAD of this.... wait for it ....THAT!!!!?"

"Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo"

In the worst fanfic, the author shapes it with no concern for logic or plausibility, even within the framework of the fiction they're fanfic-ing. Picard and Kirk join forces against evil Janeway and Goatee Wolverine to try to prevent Archie Bunker from becoming President of the United Nations because why not???

In short, too many people are high on the supply of infinite outcomes they can pull out of an individual and collective imagination utterly unhindered by reality.

Case in point, just today...RS article on the virtues of Harris v Trump. Leaving aside that the premise that "all he has against HER is "word vomit " because that's nonsense. How about, "She's a woman, and she's black so where's HER birth certificate?"

That will play and play.

Comment section....

"What about Beshear? What about.........?"

Yeah, what about them? There are problems with this fanfic. Mainly....

A) Kamala Harris EXISTS.

B) Kamala Harris is the sitting VP.

C) Kamala Harris, and ONLY Kamala Harris controls all that sweet, sweet campaign money. That means...

D) If you dump Biden and push out Harris your unicorn is going to have to collect cans for three months until he's reamed bloody in November.

Good luck with that circus.


None of this narrative is reality-based and none of it leads to a good outcome.

I think Biden had a bad debate. I think he's been fine since.

But, hey, let's say he's decomposing in real time. So, what? The right is running the pile of garbage they are running and they don't care. Why should I risk dividing my party by dumping Biden?

And, if Biden is falling apart? So, what?

He can take the oath on 1.20.25, go to the inauguration parties, take a final bow, and resign 9am Tuesday 1.21.

Most Democratic voters want to stick with Biden, even if they might have concerns. It's the party that's having a problem right now.

And the media will pour gasoline on that because they care about nothing but drama and the clicks it brings them.

I'm more worried about the spineless party and media impact than I am about Biden.

Biden has sounded fine since. Sounded fine at today's WI rally and the unscripted press mash after. ABC interview was also fine.

Because of that, I tend to believe it was his cold, or the meds for it.

Kennedy is a non-entity in the Democratic Party. The only people that take him seriously are so far left that they're essentially right. He can make crazy sound intellectual, so he consistently takes more votes from Trump than Biden.

From a journalist on Twitter:



David Roberts @drvolts

"I haven't written much about politics since the debate, mainly because I'm so overwhelmed by disgust & contempt toward this country's media & commentariat that it has rendered me inarticulate with rage. Twitter probably doesn't need more rage. I do just wanna make one point tho.

To be clear up front: I don't give one tiny hot f--- who the Dem nominee is. I truly don't. Biden's fine. Harris is fine. A warm puddle of vomit is fine. *There is no conceivable resolution to the nomination fight that could change the basic calculus of this race.*

Preventing a fascist takeover of the US is my top priority--as a journalist, as a voter, as a human. If it isn't yours too, you should feel bad about yourself. If you haven't made the stakes of this election clear to everyone within the sound of your voice, you should feel bad.

But I'm not gonna rant. [breathes deeply] Just gonna make my one point, which is this: the idea that that the process of jettisoning Biden & choosing someone else will go well -- will be *allowed* to go well -- is a deeply deranged fantasy.

The idea that Dems will do this & will end up feeling unified, that Harris will come out popular, that "the dynamics of the race will shift," all of that ... f------ deranged. Deranged in such a perfectly characteristic Dem way.

"This person/policy/slogan/approach has been irredeemably slimed by Republicans & a hostile media -- let's throw it overboard!" That's the Dem way. Always with this starry-eyed hope that they can reset, start over, get it right this time.

Just as one example -- other people have aggregated these -- there have been "calls" for every Dem nominee of the last 30 years to step aside. Dems practically delight in abandoning their own people, policies, & principles in response to bad-faith pressure. They f'ing love it.

But, as I've been saying for, oh, 20 years now, the situation is structural. The current situation is an outcome of a particular incentive structure & that structure will remain exactly the same if Harris takes over the ticket.

For centrists, journalists, pundits, *even Dem electeds*, the way you prove you are a Reasonable, Serious Person in DC is by shitting on Dems. For the left, the way you prove you are a true radical is by shitting on Dems. For the right ... well, obviously.

Everyone's professional incentives are to shit on Dems. Dwelling on Trump & his fascist movement -- however justified by the objective facts -- just doesn't bring that juice, doesn't get the clicks & the high-fives, doesn't feel brave & iconoclastic. It's just ... no fun.

So, say Biden stepped aside in favor of Harris tomorrow. How long until the vapid gossips we call political reporters find something wrong with her, some alleged flaw they just have to write 192 stories about? How long until the hopped-up mediocrities we call pundits find some "counter-intuitive" reason that the new Dem ticket is flawed after all?

How long until the irredentist left gets over the temporary thrill of its new Harris memes & remembers that she's a cop & turns on her? How long before the ambient racism & misogyny in the US lead center-leftists to conclude that, sure, they'd support a black woman, just not *this* black woman? In other words: how long before everyone reverts to their comfortable, familiar identity & narratives?

About 30 f'ing seconds, is my guess.

Dems uniting, feeling good, telling a clear story, receiving credit for their accomplishments--all of that is *impossible* in the current environment. It won't be allowed. Dems can punch themselves in the face all they want, abandon whoever they want, apologize all they want they simply will not be allowed to turn the page & start fresh, because everyone's incentives remain the same. If they did that, elites, including media elites, would have no choice but to openly & frankly grapple with Trump & what he represents & they *don't want to*.

Everyone feels comfortable shitting on Dems -- it's just a cozy professional space. You get to feel brave & independent (just like all the replacement-level pundits around you) with zero risk.

Yes, it's abysmal, contemptible cowardice on a genuinely embarrassing scale but it is what it is & we should have no illusions that it will change with a change in the top of the ticket.

As @whstancil has been trying to tell you people (good god how he tries), the information environment is thoroughly corrupted.

@whstancil For some reason, left pundits are pathologically averse to acknowledging that fact. And so they grasp at these straws -- if we could just get rid of Biden, we could have a reasonable conversation! Yeah, sure. You absurd summer children.

@whstancil This election is not a choice between two individuals, it's a choice between worldviews, between futures. Do we want to continue down the path to multiethnic democracy or do we want to impose a white patriarchal Christian autocracy?

@whstancil At stake is the entire federal civil service. The machinery of state built since WWII. Freedom & dignity for millions. Yes, democracy itself. That's not an exaggeration. Yet this country's elites have utterly failed to convey those stakes to the populace. A *grotesque* failure.
You can not look at this extraordinary media freakout this last week and not psychologize, not see all kinds of displacement. They can't or won't be serious about Trump & so they are f------ *giddy* at having permission to scold Dems again. Their safe place.

Anyway, my point is just: none of this will change if Harris replaces Biden at the top of the ticket. The idea that the media -- with these soulless careerist court gossips in charge -- will allow it is just fantasy. They *need* Dems in disarray & so they will engineer it.

The US is right on the precipice of falling into bona fide fascism & *the vast majority of the voting public doesn't even know it*. That speaks to a deeply diseased information environment. Until Dems do something about that, all their self-flagellation will buy them nothing.

Not knowing what else to do, Dems shit on their own"

****

All of this.

All of them.

I don't know what she brings to the ticket. She's not even that well liked in her home state either. 

Personally, I thought it was a mistake to name her as VP because of this exact situation. She doesn't have that presence, experience, etc...That's even if we're talking from a colour blind perspective. Middle America will freak if she becomes the Presidential nominee. I do think she would tear Trump in a debate.....but not at the polls where it counts.  

It's frustrating that we're even here. With as corrupt and criminal as Trump and his administration was, we're practically 50/50 on folks voting for either of them. That's in part because of the poor Dem candidates. 

Regardless, it's too late to change horses. It's Biden or bust. 

Not for nothing, but this comment appeared on Daily Kos:



David Jolly just made an excellent point I haven’t heard from anyone else.

If Biden drops out, the GQP will immediately sue in numerous states over ballot access to block the new person from appearing.

With this Supreme Court, do we really want to take the chance they’d allow Kamala or anyone else to show up on the ballot? I don’t.


***

I don't either.

This is the problem.

Harris will get "new, shiny object" deference for 30 seconds and they will pick her apart for woman...black...cop, and whatever else.

I keep hearing how Harris is the best chance. "She beats him in polls."

Sure, by two whole points...

...when the margin of error is +/-3.

Am I supposed to be impressed by that?

They're going to pick her apart, then you'll have pissed off Biden voters who just might stay home because they feel like he got railroaded.

Republicans circle the wagons, no matter what, and vote...no matter what.

Between that and being 100% willing to assert every bit of power they have when they have it--- that's why they win.

I suppose the one good thing about Harris is that she can fight back. She has wit, intelligence, energy, etc...Biden doesn't have much of that anymore. 

Someone took a shot at Trump in Pennsylvania. It's not surprising when you generate hatred and fear that some of it may blow back on you.

Trump doesn't really understand what he's unleased. He's been attracting angry and unstable people for years. He cannot live up to their expectations. His most extreme supporters expect him to set up concentration camps within days of the election, even if he loses.

He loves these outdoor rallies but security is almost impossible. His own supporters will be looking for his head when he disappoints disappoints them by not eliminating all the people they consider undesirable within hours. They expect miracles which won't happen.

He who lives by the sword will die by the sword.

He reminds me of Huey Long. Long was a similar type politician to Trump who was assasinated in 1935.

Yes. 

Alas.

I could certainly be wrong, and we'll find out in November, but I don't think this horse runs him straight to the WH for two main reasons:

A) You try to ride an assassination attempt into the White House on October 13th, not July.

B) It'd be different if the shooter were some Bernie/AOC, whale-hugging leftist, but he was one of theirs: a young, militant conservative gun nut who thought killing Trump would trigger a civil war. For the right to beat this drum too hard and demand it be front and center invites uncomfortable conversations about violent rhetoric, who it's coming from, the literal Republican promise of retribution and Trump himself as an example of what that will look like.

This is going to be something Donny strokes his ego with every six minutes, but, as a real propulsive force for his campaign, I think the campaign will want to mostly move on and do it quickly because he was one of theirs.